Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify reliable predictors of the onset of juvenile myopia.
Methods: The data from 554 children enrolled in the Orinda Longitudinal Study of Myopia (OLSM) as nonmyopes with baseline data from the third grade were evaluated to develop a predictive profile for later onset of juvenile myopia. Myopia was defined as at least -0.75 D of myopia in the vertical and horizontal meridians of the right eye as measured by cycloplegic autorefraction (n = 45 children). Chosen predictors were refractive error and the ocular components: corneal power, Gullstrand crystalline lens power, and axial length. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to evaluate and compare these predictors singly and combined.
Results: Refractive error, axial length, Gullstrand lens and pod corneal power were all significant predictive factors for the onset of juvenile myopia. The best single predictor of future myopia onset in the right eye was the right eye's cycloplegic autorefraction spherical refractive error value (mean sphere across 10 readings) at baseline. For a cut point of less than +0.75 D hyperopia in the third grade, sensitivity was 86.7% and specificity was 73.3%. The area under the ROC curve for this mean sphere was 0.880. Producing a logistic model combining mean sphere, corneal power, Gullstrand lens power, and axial length results in a slight improvement in predictive ability (area under the ROC curve = 0.893).
Conclusions: Onset of juvenile myopia can be predicted with moderate accuracy using the mean cycloplegic, spherical refractive error in the third grade. Measurement of other ocular components at this age improves predictive ability, albeit incrementally. Further improvements in the prediction of myopia onset will require the use of longitudinal data in addition to one-time measurement of refractive error and the ocular components.